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Constituencies with more migrants are less concerned about immigration

Attention preservation notice: for a full listing of constituencies showing their attitude towards immigration, download the spreadsheet When journalists were writing their colour pieces about Clacton last week, one commonly occurring theme was concern about immigration. Residents of Clacton seemed

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Free booklet on constituency opinion

Later today we’ll be presenting some of the results of our project in the House of Commons Library, which were reported on in today’s Times (paywalled). We’ll be discussing opinion estimates on three issues (Euroscepticism, immigration, and redistribution), and hinting

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Clacton is the most Euroskeptic constituency in the UK

On the 28th August, Douglas Carswell defected to the United Kingdom Independence Party and resigned his seat as Conservative MP for Clacton. At the time of writing, Carswell is the prohibitive favourite to win the upcoming by-election. Electoral success has

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It’s the BESt thing

There is a special category of things which merit a Wikipedia entry they don’t have. It’s impossible, or at least very difficult, to list members of this category. The very act of listing gives people a strong impetus to include

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South Shields is an island

In an earlier post, we talked about how we can use geographic information about constituencies to improve our estimates of public opinion in those constituencies. That is, we’re trading on the idea that constituencies that are close together are going

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All the single ladies, all the single ladies

When we discussed Mr. P before, we talked, rather blithely, about being able to build up a tally of the number of voters of particular types residing in each constituency. Those types depend on the particular model that we use,

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The multiple levels of Mister P

In a previous entry, we began to discuss the Mister P method for estimating constituency opinion. Specifically, we looked at the `regression and post-stratification’ steps of the Mister P method. To re-cap, in the regression step, national survey data is

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Scree on the slopes

In our last entry, we discussed one way for getting better estimates of constituency opinion using characteristics of the respondents — multilevel regression and post-stratification or Mr. P. Another way of producing better estimates (where better means `better than the

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Mister P and the Twenty-Eight Hundred

Statistical methods rarely have cool names. Tibishrani’s lasso, and ‘bootstrap’ methods, are perhaps the only exceptions. On the face of it, multilevel regression and post-stratification, or MRP, would seem to be just another acronym. So we’re going to follow Andrew

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Directly estimating opinion in constituencies

Over the next few months, we’re going to be describing some of the special techniques that we use to estimate constituency opinion. Before we do that, however, it’s useful to explain why we have to use special techniques. Why can’t

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