Blog Archives

It’s the BESt thing

There is a special category of things which merit a Wikipedia entry they don’t have. It’s impossible, or at least very difficult, to list members of this category. The very act of listing gives people a strong impetus to include

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South Shields is an island

In an earlier post, we talked about how we can use geographic information about constituencies to improve our estimates of public opinion in those constituencies. That is, we’re trading on the idea that constituencies that are close together are going

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All the single ladies, all the single ladies

When we discussed Mr. P before, we talked, rather blithely, about being able to build up a tally of the number of voters of particular types residing in each constituency. Those types depend on the particular model that we use,

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Scree on the slopes

In our last entry, we discussed one way for getting better estimates of constituency opinion using characteristics of the respondents — multilevel regression and post-stratification or Mr. P. Another way of producing better estimates (where better means `better than the

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Mister P and the Twenty-Eight Hundred

Statistical methods rarely have cool names. Tibishrani’s lasso, and ‘bootstrap’ methods, are perhaps the only exceptions. On the face of it, multilevel regression and post-stratification, or MRP, would seem to be just another acronym. So we’re going to follow Andrew

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Directly estimating opinion in constituencies

Over the next few months, we’re going to be describing some of the special techniques that we use to estimate constituency opinion. Before we do that, however, it’s useful to explain why we have to use special techniques. Why can’t

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Who’s written on the MP-constituency opinion link?

If you’ve read the short description of our project that we put up some time ago, you’ll realize that this project tries to produce good estimates of public opinion in British constituencies, and to use those estimates to assess the

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Presentation for today’s talk at the LSE

Ben Lauderdale presented some of the early results from our project at the LSE’s event on the General Election 2015. You can find the slides here [PDF].

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It’s a small (area) world

The techniques we’re using on this project belong to a long-lasting and broad tradition called small area estimation. Small-area estimation has been around since the early eighties. It’s extremely useful if you have considerable information on large units but limited

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