Monthly Archives: September 2013

Directly estimating opinion in constituencies

Over the next few months, we’re going to be describing some of the special techniques that we use to estimate constituency opinion. Before we do that, however, it’s useful to explain why we have to use special techniques. Why can’t

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Who’s written on the MP-constituency opinion link?

If you’ve read the short description of our project that we put up some time ago, you’ll realize that this project tries to produce good estimates of public opinion in British constituencies, and to use those estimates to assess the

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Presentation for today’s talk at the LSE

Ben Lauderdale presented some of the early results from our project at the LSE’s event on the General Election 2015. You can find the slides here [PDF].

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It’s a small (area) world

The techniques we’re using on this project belong to a long-lasting and broad tradition called small area estimation. Small-area estimation has been around since the early eighties. It’s extremely useful if you have considerable information on large units but limited

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