Yearly Archives: 2013

The multiple levels of Mister P

In a previous entry, we began to discuss the Mister P method for estimating constituency opinion. Specifically, we looked at the `regression and post-stratification’ steps of the Mister P method. To re-cap, in the regression step, national survey data is

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Scree on the slopes

In our last entry, we discussed one way for getting better estimates of constituency opinion using characteristics of the respondents — multilevel regression and post-stratification or Mr. P. Another way of producing better estimates (where better means `better than the

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Mister P and the Twenty-Eight Hundred

Statistical methods rarely have cool names. Tibishrani’s lasso, and ‘bootstrap’ methods, are perhaps the only exceptions. On the face of it, multilevel regression and post-stratification, or MRP, would seem to be just another acronym. So we’re going to follow Andrew

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Directly estimating opinion in constituencies

Over the next few months, we’re going to be describing some of the special techniques that we use to estimate constituency opinion. Before we do that, however, it’s useful to explain why we have to use special techniques. Why can’t

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Who’s written on the MP-constituency opinion link?

If you’ve read the short description of our project that we put up some time ago, you’ll realize that this project tries to produce good estimates of public opinion in British constituencies, and to use those estimates to assess the

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Presentation for today’s talk at the LSE

Ben Lauderdale presented some of the early results from our project at the LSE’s event on the General Election 2015. You can find the slides here [PDF].

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It’s a small (area) world

The techniques we’re using on this project belong to a long-lasting and broad tradition called small area estimation. Small-area estimation has been around since the early eighties. It’s extremely useful if you have considerable information on large units but limited

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About our project

This is our first post on this site — and we can’t really do anything better than refer you to the About section, where we’ve described, in what we hope are fairly user-friendly terms, what we’re trying to do on

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